Is China the next global Superpower? This seems to be the question that occupies the minds of organizations, governments and ordinary global citizens. A general feeling around the world that China will be the next global superpower is supported by books, documentaries, and the media. Many view the economic crisis, from which many Western economies suffer, as an indication to what could be the demise of the “Western rule” and the beginning of a new world order in which Asia, and specifically China, leads the way
A surprising approach about China as a superpower is suggested in a new book titled “Why China Will Never Rule the World” by Troy Parfitt, an English teacher and the author of “Notes from the Other China”. Mr. Parfitt is uncertain whether China wants to rule the world (although he feels that China definitely wishes to increase its global influence), and he does not see how China is able to overcome the many problems with which it currently faces, such as pollution, corruption and dishonesty within the Chinese society.
In a rare, exclusive interview for Laowaiblog, Mr. Parfitt explains why China will never become the next global superpower.
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The book’s title, Why China Will Never Rule the World, implies that China might want to rule the world someday. Does China really want to rule the world? What makes people think it does?
I suppose book titles can imply many things. People tend to think the book’s subtitle, Travels in the Two Chinas, implies an analysis of “rich China” versus “poor China,” but that’s not what it refers to at all. Actually, “Why China Will Never Rule the World” speaks to the media-and-Sinophile driven refrain that China is going to rule the world, and that it’s going to do so soon. It’s the heading I’ve chosen for a refutation of the China-set-to-shake-the-world argument, an illustration of why that argument is misleading because it is irrelevant. I say ‘irrelevant’ because it’s the wrong lens through which to view China. The question shouldn’t be: when and how will China rule the world? but rather: what is China’s true nature? Only when we understand what China is, and how it got that way, can we gauge something about its future.
As for the question: does China really want to rule the world? it depends on who you ask. When I lived in Taiwan, it was “common knowledge” that the twenty-first century was going to be China’s. My students told me that on a regular basis. There are allusions to it in popular culture and the media – both in Taiwan and China. It’s certainly something many Chinese believe, and have for some time. Chinese writer and social critic Bo Yang makes reference to it in his “The Ugly Chinaman and the Crisis of Chinese Culture”, published in 1985. I think China certainly wants a greater stake in the world, and more influence. I think its bid to host the Olympics and its soft-power initiatives, as evidenced by the establishment of its Confucius Institutes, about 320 presently according to The Economist, are indicators of that.
As to: what makes people think China will rule the world? again, it depends on who you talk to. If you’re from China, I suppose, it’s a comforting thought to latch on to. China has been so poor and so troubled for so long that it’s nice to think it’s earned its place in the sun. It also fits in with the non-linear view Chinese people take toward their history: China was once great and therefore will be again. People tend to view things, too, purely in economic terms, but I think that’s an exercise in monocausalism. Westerners are guilty of this as well. And of course there are Westerners who have a deep affinity for China, a small but vocal group whose members often live in China for long spells, if not for life. I could theorize as to why these people believe in China the way they do, but that would be speculative and probably counterproductive.
In a recent Pew Global Attitudes Project report, the global balance of opinion is that China either will replace or already has replaced the United States as the world’s leading superpower. This view is prominent in 15 of 22 nations and is especially widespread in Western Europe, where at least six in ten in France (72 percent), Spain (67 percent), Britain (65 percent), and Germany (61 percent) see China overtaking the US. How do you respond to such data? Is everyone off-track with these estimates?
It ought to go without saying that all because the majority believes something, it doesn’t necessarily make it so. People believe all kinds of things. I believe the Montreal Canadiens are the greatest hockey club in the world, even though they were knocked out of the first round of the playoffs this year by the Boston Bruins, who went on to win the Stanley Cup. A comprehensive study in China, as reported by the BBC, found that two thirds of Chinese smokers don’t believe smoking is bad for their health, and a recent poll in the United States showed around 20 percent of Americans believe Barack Obama is Muslim. If you look at the Pew Global Attitudes Project report, you’ll find many in Western Europe – France: 23 percent, Spain: 14 percent, Britain: 11 percent, and Germany: 11 percent – think China has already replaced the US as world superpower, which isn’t true. And, interestingly, of the 22 countries surveyed, the lowest number in terms of those who believe China has already surpassed the US comes from China itself, with just 6 percent.
As for everyone being off track, certainly respondents in the Has-already-replaced-the-US category are, whereas those who believe China will eventually replace the US are, perhaps, uninformed. What are respondents basing their evaluation on? Statistics? Personal observations? Feelings? If you’re going to ask people what they believe, you may as well ask them why they believe it, but that wasn’t done here. It is my opinion that, generally speaking, the media has done an extraordinarily poor job when characterizing China and its emergence from relative obscurity, and is no doubt at least partly responsible for the myth that five centuries of Western influence is about to be reversed. Not that I’m saying America will always be the world’s sole superpower. My thesis is not some kind of endorsement for US hegemony. I am simply pointing out that China’s ruling the world – literally or figuratively – is an impossibility because, besides business, China has nothing to offer the world. Even if you overlook for a moment that Confucian values are antithetical to Enlightenment values, China doesn’t meet the definition of a developed nation. In 2010, the UN listed it as being in 92nd spot on its Human Development Index, and China is listed in 94th spot in terms of GDP per capita by the IMF. China’s GDP per capita is a scant $7,519. China doesn’t even have anything to offer Taiwan, a country with which it shares a culture, a language, and historical overlap. China has over a thousand missiles in Fujian ready to roll out and point at the “renegade province” if it doesn’t comply with its wishes. Not surprisingly, 89 percent of Taiwanese citizens don’t want anything to do with China. And why would they? Taiwan is democratic, much wealthier – 20th in terms of GDP per capita at $35, 227 – and so much more progressive. If that’s how China treats its “family,” how is it going to treat its “friends?”
With what kind of problems is China dealing and what makes you confident that it will not be able to overcome them?
Pollution is a huge problem. In its mad dash to turn a buck, China has brutalized much of its landscape and jeopardized the health of its citizens. According to Rob Gifford, former China correspondent for Britain’s National Public Radio and author of China Road, 75 percent of China’s river water is unfit for drinking or fishing. The Chinese Communist Party has admitted that something like 10 percent of its arable land has become seriously contaminated. China is now the leading producer of greenhouse gases, and air pollution in that country is astonishing. British author, Simon Winchester, described the pall over Chongqing as being, and I quote: “so dreadful as to be barely credible”, and The New York Times claims that only 1 percent of China’s 560 million urban residents breathe air considered safe by the European Union. I live in one of Canada’s most industrial cities, and have a lovely view of billowing emissions from Canada’s largest oil refinery. On some mornings, it looks as though the Luftwaffe has just strafed the city’s lower East Side, yet air pollution here doesn’t hold a candle to the stuff I saw in China, where it’s possible to think: “My god. Is there a forest fire?” I sincerely hope China will overcome its pollution problem – cancer is now the leading cause of death there and respiratory disease is a major issue – but I doubt it will in my lifetime. China’s economic baseline is industry, and industry creates pollution. If China can evolve into a more-brains-less-brawn economy, as it were, perhaps the situation might improve. But if such a transition is underway, I’m unaware of it.
In addition to pollution, there’s endemic corruption, and though corruption exists everywhere, in China it’s woven into the very fabric of society. Tim Clissold’s Mr. China is the most enlightening account I’ve read regarding Chinese venality vis-à-vis business, and, of course, any decent history book is bound to swim with instances of sleaze and graft. A history of the Chinese Nationalist Party, for example, could double as a history of sleaze and graft. I don’t know how many Chinese movies I’ve seen with poker scenes where everyone at the table is cheating or someone comes up with five aces, and I’ve taught Taiwanese businessmen who’ve relayed some pretty harrowing accounts of the hazards of setting up shop in Fujian and Guangzhou. Extortion is common; so is kidnapping. It’s nothing new; it’s just how it goes, how it’s always gone.
Corruption is just an offshoot of dishonesty, what might be China’s largest obstacle. Bo Yang lambasted his brethren for fostering what he called a culture of dishonesty, and I would have to concur. Look at the news in China; it’s a parade of propaganda. Seldom is information supplied just for the sake of supplying it; there’s a message with everything. In 2009, the Paris-based watchdog, Reporters Without Borders, rated China 168th out of 175 countries in terms of freedom of the press, hardly encouraging. Again, propaganda exists everywhere. I wouldn’t want anyone to think I was naïve to that fact. In my own country, there has been what I would call an alarming rise in pro-military propaganda – a pathetic attempt to encourage national tribalism and lend legitimacy to the debacle that is the War in Afghanistan, which, in Canada, is referred to as the Afghan Mission, by linking it to supposed heroics in WWI. But at least you can find out most of the dirt by reading news magazines, newspapers, and going online. Plus, you’re occasionally peppered with facts and in-depth coverage by the CBC, which does an excellent job at obliterating spin. Not the case in China. In 2008, the Xinhua News Agency reported a successful space launch complete with astronaut discourse – even though the astronauts were still on the ground. Given China’s lack of candidness, shall we say, one wonders how it is going to strike up a sincere partnership with the West and the rest of the world. As for overcoming that, no, I don’t think it will. Playing fast and loose with the truth is a core cultural component, and eradicating it would require much introspection and an admission of wrongdoing, rare in Chinese culture.
How do you respond to people such as Jim Rogers and Martin Jacques, who claim that China is on its way to becoming an economic superpower?
I like Jim Rogers a lot and appreciate his direct, no-nonsense manner of speaking. He dispenses a lot of criticism about how the US runs its economy, and it’s a brave man who can talk about his country like that. He certainly seems to have an international perspective – he lives in Singapore – and I think he’s absolutely right about China becoming an economic superpower. In fact, China already is an economic superpower, and I’m sure Jim Rogers would agree. Far be it from me to argue with him or Goldman Sachs. After all, I’m not an economist. However, there’s much more to leadership than liquidity and production capability. Yes, the United States has gotten itself into deep doo-doo with its national debt and lack of regulation, and look at what happened recently to Iceland and Ireland. But Western economic woes do not equate to or provide for China’s quote unquote ruling the world. To believe that is to believe in simplistic dualism. China has cash. Now what? Lots of countries have cash. Few have the intelligence or imagination to use it in an effective and meaningful way.
Martin Jacques implies that just as China exports its goods, it will soon be exporting its language, movies, music, education, values, and what have you. But this is where his argument breaks down, which is to say: immediately. In argumentative logic, Mr. Jacques is engaging in the domino fallacy, whereby a particular trend or event is considered one step, usually the first, in a series of steps that will inexorably lead to a specific desired or undesired result. And, of course, with Jacques, the former editor of Marxism Today, the result is desired. I see his thesis as being more a wish than an objective assessment. It’s his dream that China rises and beats the specious and conceited West at its own game. His book, When China Rules the World, is nicely bound, well written, and full of interesting facts, figures, graphs, and charts. But his conclusions are wrong. He’s also guilty of mythologizing China, something Sinophiles have been doing for centuries. One of Jacques’s chief arguments is that China will dominate because it’s a civilization-state and not a mere nation-state like the other 190-some nation-states in the world. That would be interesting if there were, in fact, any such term as ‘civilization-state.’ It’s not in any dictionary I own, and a Google search shows it’s only connected to Jacques and his book. Why this arcane parlance? China is so mysterious and unquantifiable that the English language is ill-equipped to deal with it? Please. Such terminology is literally meaningless and mythologizing China isn’t going to help people understand it. It needs to be observed objectively, even coldly, not such a complicated matter as China is entirely knowable, not mysterious at all. The shallow assessments and mythomania have gone on long enough. China’s imminent world domination is possibly the greatest myth of our times.
What can the world do to better understand the direction in which China is headed? How can the West be better prepared for a rising China?
As to the first question, I think people ought to read more, especially about China’s past, because China is still, despite all the physical signs of modernity, living in its past and bound to its tenets. Even Martin Jacques says as much, although whereas he sees this as a blessing, or something approaching the spiritual, I see it as a hindrance if not a curse. Now, when you mention China’s past, the instinct is to yawn or perhaps cringe, but, overwhelmingly, I’m not referring to dynastic times. I’m instead talking about modern history, especially that of the last 150 years. That’s the good stuff, and it’s been excellently documented by foreign observers and Chinese observers who relocated to the West. Read Jonathan Spence, Jonathan Fenby, Sterling Seagrave, or Jung Chang. And if that’s too daunting, try Peter Hessler, Paul Theroux, Colin Thubron, or Ma Jian. If you’ve got a business interest, read Tim Clissold. There are loads of excellent China books out there, and reading them can become addictive. Westerners should know, too, that the China debate is heavy with spin-doctors and factions. There are Sinophiles, Sinophobes, Chinese nationalists, pro-Chinese culture/anti-Communist-Party types, pro-Taiwan/anti-China sorts, and heaps of people who censor themselves due to professional affiliation. It’s important for non-Chinese to be discriminating when consuming information about China, and to make up their own minds about China’s essence and intentions.
As to the second question: how can the West be better prepared for a rising China? that’s a tough one. Again, reading helps, but it’s difficult to know how to deal with China. The Chinese see things in terms of the Confucian hierarchy. Partnerships are tenuous as there just isn’t much trust. China does not like the West, and this is what people need to understand. I don’t mean that everyday Chinese people don’t like Western people or certain aspects of Western culture, although that is sometimes the case; I mean that the Chinese government continually blames the West for many of its problems. Victimization is a major recurring theme in China, and the government insists on telling its people things like the Americans waged bacteriological warfare in China during the 1950s, even though Moscow admitted at the end of the Cold War that that story had been concocted by the Kremlin. At the Museum to Commemorate US Aggression, located in Dandong, on the Yalu River, which helps divide China and North Korea, you can still find germ-warfare exhibits. In fact, quite a few Chinese museums are simply pro-Chinese-government/anti-imperialist propaganda pieces. I’ve seen debates on CCTV 9 where the host derides the United States with such gusto that he looks to be shaking. Some Sinophiles say this is harmless, that it’s just the age old trick of keeping the masses focused on so-called malevolent outsiders and away from, say, corrupt domestic officials. They say China will never actually act on its claims. But I’m not convinced. Revenge is such an incredibly powerful element in the Chinese world and failing to act on one’s words can result in a colossal loss of face. As was noted at the 2008 Reith Lectures, given by Jonathan Spence, China now presents the Opium Wars as the starting point of modern Chinese history. The Chinese government needs to be asked, point blank, why that is.
Also, rather than fretting about China so much, Western countries might want to get their own houses in order. In Canada, poverty is a serious issue, and so is education, not to mention illiteracy and nepotism. Despite its many pretensions, Canada has to be one of the least meritocratic nations on Earth. The government has a mastery of wasteful spending and the health system is in a supremely bad way. Perhaps China’s economic gains will be the impetus needed for the West to shape up, but the realist in me doubts that will happen. Looking at all the problems in the West, it might be tempting to think China is the land of answers, but I see it more as the land of questions – at least for those permitted to ask them.
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Lior Paritzky is the Editor in Chief and Manager of Laowaiblog, an internet platform that provides opinion and views about social phenomena in modern China. Look for Lior on Twitter: Liorpari 
Just wanna say thanks to Lior Paritzky for taking the time to interview me and for allowing me to voice my opinions on this informative site. Thanks so much. Troy Parfitt
Laowaiblog keeps on bringing the good stuff. I log in from time to time to see if there are any new, interesting articles, and I am pleasantly surprised every time. Keep up the good work!
Thanks for the detailed and fascinating interview. This guy understands China, and Chinese culture, better than 99.99% of so-called China “experts” and pundits.
After 5 years of living and traveling in China, everything he says resonates with me completely, although Troy expresses his ideas more eloquently than myself – his observations are spot-on.
So I would agree with Troy on many topics, but he hasn’t directly replied to the situation in the West: What is going to happen with the U.S and how will that affect China as a superpower?
Better than saying that China might not want to rule the world is saying that it wants to. Even within China people just want to live better, no one talks about ruling the world – that is a completely western term. Is China superpower is not the right questions but does it really want to be?
First of all, hats off to Lior and the Laowaiblog team for providing this insightful interview. It is rare to hear such views about China in the media, and to me this is what makes this blog unique. I don’t know if China is a superpower or not, or whether to believe other media anymore – it is all about how China is beating the U.S in everything. It somehow doesn’t seem real to me. Even though I haven’t been to china, I don’t see how a single country in the world can, in such short amount of time, eliminate another country who has been the world’s most influential country for the past 100 years (if not more).
This interview has got me even more doubtful regarding the so called “free” media in the U.S.
What a beautiful article. I enjoyed it so much and didn’t notice how time just flew by. To me, China is a superpower
Troy makes some real, strong and valid points. I think that this whole “China Superpower” issue has gotten the U.S to kind of a crazy mode, not to mention the rest of the world. Yes, China is getting stronger and has more influence than before. And, it might be the biggest economy in 2020, but what sentence in everything that Troy said really makes it real for me that I don’t have to worry: “besides business, China has nothing to offer the world”.
The sad part is that in the past China had a lot to offer the world, before 1949 that is. After that, China became different, closed and more secluded. Now it is trying to regain its status by copying from other countries. China must create, invent and innovate if it really wants to be a global leader, but it can’t do that in a day, a year or even ten years. This is a process that needs to be passed through to the masses through education. Frankly, China is in no position to let its people go through that process because it will risk its ruling.
Keep em coming LAOWAIBLOG (P.S Can anyone please explain what the name means?)
laowai means foreigner.
I guess I would be classified as one of those who believe that China has already taken the U.S to become the world’s superpower. To believe does not mean that it is true. The reason why I believe so is because I see what is happening to my own country (Spain) and to other Western countries around the world – unemployment is really high and debt is high and there is no solution in the near future because there are no jobs and no possibility to have a decent life. We are all looking at China and how it provides work for so many people and how the quality of life there continues to rise – of course it will influence us to believe that China is a better place to live in. even that the quality of life in Spain is probably much higher than in China, I still think that China is a superpower, and it will provide more stability for citizens in the near future than what my country can give me
I love how Laowaiblog brings the unpopular opinion to the table and lets it see light! An article from a pro-China writer would be a great addition so we can compare opinions about whether China is a Superpower or not!
As a Chinese, I must agree with the things troy writes here. We don’t want China as a superpower and we don’t want china to rule the world. we want to be respected in the world and to have a better life
That’s a great interview
I think that the question about investors (Jim Rogers and Martin Jacques) is quite misleading. The issue of this article is whether China is a superpower or whether it will be a superpower. I don’t think that neither Troy nor anyone else here disagrees that China is a great place to invest and put money in, but many may agree that China is not, in any way or form, going to be a superpower.
So is China a superpower or not?
No question about it
An English teacher? Taiwan? Has the guy even spent time in mainland China? How many years? what are his credentials? every person who spends a couple of years abroad writes a book nowadays. Are we all supposed to believe him?
China is not a superpower and it never will be. We must remember that people are attracted to money, but money can’t hold a country and can’t serve as the only motivation for a country’s success. Even China has realized that its growth model, in which there is only emphasis on economic growth, is not viable because it now pays more to repair environmental damages and energy costs than it benefits from the growth
Once china has something to offer the world, in terms of innovation, then we can say that China is a superpower. Until then, it is not
“besides business, China has nothing to offer the world”.
Wow! now I don’t have to worry about the western anymore if people in west truly believe that. China will be just fine.
Someone mentioned that China had internal issues, and became isolated prior to 1949. I think – of course this is my own opinion, that it was the actions of the U.S., Russia, the U.K, France, and even Japan, after WWII, which caused the Chinese to stagnate. The containment of China was orchestrated by, at one point or another, each of those countries.
I think they [the Chinese] are just awakening from an imposed, then self-imposed slumber. People can talk about Western geopolitical-strategy, philosophies and ideologies, the European Union, enigmatic Russia, Oil, the environment, but I think Capital [money] is what China has – and therefore, they can just buy themselves out of problems. It may take some time, decades even, but I think China will emerge as a superpower – economically. Militarily? That’s up to them – not the U.S.
A really good article, I agree with the views of Mr. Parfitt. Believing or wanting something does not make it true.
China may one day reach what we can call a “modern/civilized” society but that will not happen anytime soon.
China is staying behind on so many issues,solving those issues will require a better education of its people over at least two to three generations.
Censorship, short term thinking will cause many more problems in the upcoming years, you don’t rule the world within less than a century. US did it with innovation, China does not have this and its culture does not promote it.
my bet is 150 years to have a China reaching the level to the best societies in the world, that without accidents along the way (civil war etc,…)
China is short term thinking? You must be kidding, right? From one child policy to open door policy, I can not see that Chinese people are short term thinking at all.
Yes, we american are long term thinking, and we are in deep trouble now!
Just finished reading, it’s a great article.
My opinion, regarding US as a superpower, is that the they have been largely successful due to their victory over the Third Reich in WWII. I mean, where would Silicon Valley & NASA be without german scientists like i.e. Von Braun? They offered him asylum, work, and wealth. Call me absurd but I think if the Nazi Party took over Europe in the second world war, then we’d probably be speaking german right now.
As for China, I don’t think that “they” want to rule the world. They are just climbing up the ladder again after they fell and take back what is rightfully theirs. China has been bullied and exploited over the centuries by western empires like Britain, the once “largest drug dealer” in the world (Opium Wars). Of course, their internal government such as the Ming Dynasty, also had a big influence on how isolated and backward China was before the late 80′s, and still is in the eyes of many westerners. If the west wants China to be more open, innovative then it has to be more optimistic and patient. 20 years ago, most chinese cities were literally “fishing towns” in the eyes of the west. Look at it today and you see Airbus Assembly in Tianjin, Olympics in Beijing, Formula 1 in Shanghai, China’s Got Talent, Lenovo, Haier, Baidu, “chinese Silicon Valley”, etc. Give China time and it WILL gradually improve over time, just like Taiwan. Once corporations, businesses, and people invest in a country, they don’t just invest money but innovation, technology, education, and work. The view towards each other will be drastically changed, and copying and reverse engineering will be common in those manufacturing-based industrial economies. That’s also a form of “doctrine”, everything is based and improved upon sharing knowledge and know-how today, just like in schools where teachers pass on their wisdom, what they have been taught, to the students.
Finally, I want to point out that if you have been to China 30 years ago and recently, then you’ll see the undergoing difference, policy changes and development there. You will also find out that almost zero to none talk about things that we do on this blog. Only westerners have the spare time to think and judge, so to speak, other nations. Time is money there, everything is done in half the time. Unfortunately, it’s always “economic development first, enviromental issues second” whether you’re in China or the USA a century ago.
History is being written by the victor.
One shall not judge the other if they have internal problems themselves.
You can write it
China become superpower but not only unique superpower as today USA
My dear Good day
I don’t think you know much about china and its culture and history. Infact I think you need to do more research about China before you make any comment. You are certainly live in a shelted country with shelted mind. I don’t know much about the rest of the world’s running. China has lots of rich natural resources burried under the Himalayan Mountain.
If China does not offer much to the world, stop and think again, where you think, things are made from when you go shopping. Good Day, I suggest you read the label next time you shop for your clothes etc…
Unlike American, Chinese are too smart, they don’t need to be super power. What for? why waste money in arms? instead they put money in the bank to earn more interest, build infrastructure and educate themselve to get ahead.
China is not perfect. They work hard and they have come a long way. They don’t want to be bully by United States again. The Chinese are coming and they know it.
Despite of the West criticizes China taking over our job. Think again.1) Question: Who is going to build manufacture in China? Answer: us. 2) Who is making Chinese citizen work like a slave? Answer: us 3) Question: Who is profit hungry? Answer: Us. 4) Question: Why our companies move over sea? Answer: brining cheaper labour cost to reduce lower price for us.
So what is the fest about.
Yes, I agree it’s no good for our unemployment but on the other hand we can not control that but have to live with it. So what is the point of complaining when we pretty well know it’s our companies that are moving there voluntary. So stop picking on China.
Also i like to point out about the west trying to put pressure on China about their human rights. I think it’s wrong to tell other country to change its law. China never tell the west to become communist and why should the west has the rights to tell them? Leave China alone.
They dont do any harm. China will remain China as a communist system with influence of capital system.
Joe
I don’t think China wants to rule the world as superpower but as economic power yes. Chinese are very tight, they don’t want to spend money any worry about the rest of world. Chinese people are very secretive and they are very good in saving money then spending.
Chinese people spend more money on food than anything else. You name them from very expensive food such as Ginseng, Abalone(up to $100 per can), Bird Nest(up to $3000), even tiger Penis Soup. Food means health to us. Luxury is not a priority but that will come later.
If you have to count all the Chinese in the worl, Yes I think they are already conquered the power by populations. The breed like rabbits. LOL
China is heavily diversify their shares and investments in many western countries, like USA, Canada, Australia, South America Brazail, Africa and south East Asia. My prediction in the next decade or even less, China will be the next economic super power. Infact, many countries including the West are learning Chinese language and it’s growing fast. School children will soon be introduce to Chinese language.
Another country is coming along, India, their economy is booming very quickly also. Despite few conflict between India and China always have a good trading partner.
it good to see china move up the ladder to balance the super power. China is not perfect but they certainly know now to manipulate the west to get what they want to gain knowledge from west technology.
China has lots of natural resources but they just want to use up all other countries resource first just like the west. That’s what all politics are about. Money=power
China will become superpower in 2030 but not unique superpower as today USA.
You can read this article
I have to say, I also agree with the basic idea of Troy Paritts book.
China will only go so far and then they will trip over themselves, due to an inability to go beyond their own culture and lack of progressive thinking and business practice.
Corruption is endemic, and ‘gift giving’ is considered part and parcel of everyday life.
Couple that with the fact that key positions within even major companies are given on a ‘who you know’ or ‘who you pay’ basis, no matter the individual filling the position is incompetent or not, and you have a very ‘Achilles heel’ in the way the whole country is set up.
The basic idea within China is also that other countries should adapt to China, and not the other way round. The banking sector in relation to the outside world is pitiful to say the least. Even simple transactions involving a foreign bank is like pulling teeth.
I can’t see it lasting when India rises within the next twenty years.
If China can’t give basic decent ‘service’, what are the chances of it being the most dominant country in the world. Really doubtful to any non-Chinese who has lived in the mainland.
You say that Canada has an education problem. The reason this is so is because there are thousands of Chinese (many with fake transcripts) filling Canadian colleges and universities. 55% of new students at UBC are chinese. Canadian universities have become a service-provider for china. Canadians who want a higher education can, of course, go pound sand, despite the fact that they built these schools and their tax dollars keep them running.
I want to thank you for publishing this article. As someone who is currently living in China, this article hits the nail on the head. Thank you!
Chinese culture has survived and that is something the West is losing. Propaganda simply means to keep one’s identity. The west might make us believe that we have freedom of speech but at what costs. I think the west also needs to look inside itself before it starts to criticize China. Whether China wants to or does not want to become the next superpower, it probably doesn’t have a choice. If not China, then who? The whole world is suffering, so we need to work on a new project and call it SAVE THE WORLD and look long and hard on the rise of poverty in the West.
All the problems you say prevent China from being next super power aren’t valid enough to hold them back. In time, they will solve it by getting it together specially as US keeps slowly falling from within (economy, debt, over exhusted military, smaller government, etc)
I’m from Singapore and 75% of us are overseas Chinese.
Singaporeans in general, will not introduce themselves by our races… We view ourselves as Singaporeans first… Most of us grew up with our friends from other races and this has led to a form of solidarity among our countrymen. However, even we (the local Chinese) delight in seeing a rising China or in events like China putting a man into space.
Now, before I go on, I would like to point out that I do NOT have a anti-western slant. For the sake of debate, I cannot argue both sides of the issue and I will not argue the pro points of the West and I am sure more people will be willing to do so in my place. As an Asian and as Chinese, I will stick to pointing out view points that a non-Asian and non-Chinese might not be able to point out. I would further like to point out that I hope that my points do not make anyone too uncomfortable.
Now, I was once talking to a Taiwanese American friend of mine who was brought up the issue that Chinese in general, regardless of actual nationality, seem to become defensive when it comes to China or that we feel a quiet desire to see the country rise.
This debate we had lasted for many hours and never seemed to come to a satisfactory close.
I repeat that I’m Singaporean and I further point out that my nationality does not earn me endearment to mainland Chinese… Indeed, there seems to be much mutual dislike between Singapore and China, never mind the fact that our governments are friendly and never mind the fact that a fair number of us do indeed have friends from the mainland.
I personally like the majority of my mainland Chinese friends… but that does not mean that I am unable to sympathize with the general view that Singaporeans (and the West for that matter) have of China. This not the issue of course… The issue at hand is that…
As Chinese, we see ourselves in a world that does not take us seriously. This feeling extends beyond just China, but to most of Asia as a whole.
Historically, the West came and made our various nations into colonies and this never set well with us. Indeed to us, the people who made our various nations independent – be it through negotiation, or through strife – are heroes.
I have come across people who have tried to impress upon me the “concept” that the West brought civilization to us Asians… I would say that I’m of Chinese descent, so I do not understand what they mean.. I jest of course, but the truth is simple. Let’s limit our discussion to South East Asian countries for a moment. I will exclude Singapore from this discussion as well since Singapore did not come into being before colonization by England.
Now, before West came, the people in Asia were probably satisfied… They lived upon the land that they inherited from their ancestors, they had food, they had shelter, they were satisfied. Our systems of government might not have been sophisticated, but they worked. They could not have been anything other than satisfied because they knew nothing other than their own ways of life. To suggest that they were dissatisfied would be as improbable as to say that a man who has never tasted or known of beer, would thirst for it. To reiterate it simply, one cannot desire something that one knows nothing of.
Things are different now, South East Asia has governments that follow systems that were not born out of our own cultures… and I would point out that most of these governments seem to have various interesting issues… To not offend anyone, I will not go into detail.
South East Asia’s poor are also known to be exploited. There’s even a television commercial that is calling for support of Asia’s poor that speaks of a man who makes hundreds of shoes but only owns one pair, or the fisherman who fishes for all kinds of delicacies but has never savored it… Colonies are exploited. That’s the hard fact. Being colonized by the West was not a good thing for most Asians and few would thank the West for it. In fact, to many, the exploitation never ended even with independence.
Now we go back to China. China has had a long history. (Yes, laugh at my understatement. ^ ^)
China has historically always seen itself as the Big Brother figure in Asia. To China, China was everything that they wanted and everything that they needed. They wanted no foreign lands… What they wanted however, was respect and retention of the status quo. China went to war to defend her lands to the West, or to defend her “young brothers”. Or at least that is how China liked to view itself.
The reason why China might consider the Opium Wars as the start of modern Chinese history is simple. The West shamed China. China had been bullied into giving up her sovereignty and had to comply with foreign wishes. The status quo was lost. The so-called Western barbarians were stronger than China. The so-called Western barbarians were competing to get chunks of China… And China could do nothing!
To the Chinese, the shock has resonated in our views of world. Ancient Rome considered China to be an equal on the distant side of the world. We had outlasted Rome. While Europe had her Dark Ages, we had a golden era in arts and literature. Now, these “little” nations that were as small as Britain were carving our nation apart and we could do little about it. If one looks at history, there were subsequent revolutions that arouse due to the Qing dynasty’s inability to protect the empire. Some may say that this shock should be distant history and should have no bearing on modern affairs, but I beg to differ. (Btw, Pearl got it wrong. It’s the Qing Dynasty that caused China to be backward, not the Ming.)
China had been conquered before… defeated before… There was the Yuan dynasty and the Qing dynasty. Both were formed when foreigners defeated China, took control of China and then these conquerors were assimilated into the people… They became Chinese as well. The term Chinese is not a very good approximation of the West’s ideas of race. There are too many races in China that identify with the term Chinese. Too many years of shared history, the lines have blurred. I have a mainland Chinese friend who is obviously of Manchurian descent (Qing dynasty rulers of China were Manchurians), but he identifies with being Chinese. The Chinese concept of race and the Western concept of race, might have seemed similar, but the two WERE originally quite different. Things however, sometimes still are obviously blurred.
Now, as one can deduce, the shock at the loss was not the real issue. The real issue that cemented the shock, horror and humiliation is racism.
Even today, Chinese – mainlands Chinese or overseas Chinese – have to deal with racism. I played WoW (World of Warcraft) and was in a guild full of Australians. Now I liked the guild a lot, but I had to put up with a lot of blatant anti-Asian racist comments and jokes… Now, I wasn’t the target of the comments or jokes and they would all too often suddenly remind me that they’re cool with me, but I will say that it is not pleasant to hear others mocking and laughing at your people and culture. Australia isn’t the only place… Even as an overseas Chinese, racism can be found from Europe to America. Comments like “ching chong ching chong…” and snide remarks about us cannot be seen as anything else. Open mockery cannot be seen as anything else.
I would point out that the people making the comments see no harm in what they are saying or doing. I have in the past tried to express that their comments are hurtful, but they do not understand that they are being racist or hurtful. They merely see it as good fun. I however, need merely say the word “white trash” without pinpointing anyone…. and suddenly all of them would suddenly start declaring that I’m a racist… Is that not ironic? Can I say double standards? I’m certain that some of the readers will not even realize that there’s double standards despite my examples… I often find that in favor of avoiding arguments, I just put up with it, or walk away.
Now, I have most certainly pointed out to you too many times already, I’m an overseas Chinese. I’m used to Western culture. It blunts the hurt I feel at such comments… but I already feel irritated, at times upset or maybe even a little humiliated. Imagine how a mainland Chinese would feel? Extreme humiliation… Nothing short of that would fit the emotion evoked. And we all know how important “face” is to Chinese (and this goes with overseas Chinese too!)
A hundred years before the Opium War, we were still treated with respect in the West. According to Britain’s records, Chinese officials were invited to Britain to give advice on ship building during the Napoleanic period… Yes, those ships defeated Napolean and the Spanish Armada… and then those same ships defeated China in the Opium War. Suddenly Chinese are weak, suddenly Chinese are pathetic. Chinese are suddenly roundly mocked… It doesn’t help that the now disfunct “science” that proclaimed white supremacy was at full-tilt during this period. To some countries, a hundred and seventy years is long history and should be forgotten. Perhaps so a 170 years more than half the age of such countries, but to a country with China, what is 170 years compared to almost 4000 years of recorded history? Furthermore, a 170 years of being looked down upon and having their pride stepped on, can one fault that we are unhappy with this state of affairs?
I point us once again to China’s long history and pride in that long history… where China generally had a powerful and strong image. I further cite the fact that China was certainly inward looking… The furtherest she got were her neighbours. What else can we expect from a 21st century China? Do they want to be a superpower? Definitely! They want back a spot in the Sun… They want a return to the status quo. However, they do not want to be THE superpower. They merely want to be RESPECTED. To not be threatened by colonization again. To be able to safeguard her own borders. To not have to kowtow to the threats of others. For that, they have to be A superpower. And, they have to be stable.
Now I personally have no love for China’s communist regime. I’m from a democratic nation. I admit that Singapore might be a bit strict, but I have my freedoms and Asians have always liked order in their systems. Communism however, is not to my tastes… As an overseas Chinese, I delight in China’s achievements… but feel apprehensive of their government, never mind the fact that I can understand how they must feel.
In closing, I will however point out that if China is to truly become A superpower, they have to “remember” that that they have forgotten. The damage of the Cultural Revolution has to be undone somehow and the old beliefs and old traditions have to be restored. An incomplete culture and an incomplete civilization is doomed to death… and starting anew, will not be a nice thing to watch.
“The People’s Republic of” China will not become a superpower. It has nothing to do with it’s economy (most of the infrastructure is built off of debt the same way as the United States). It has nothing to do with their “innovations” (or receiving technology secrets from Bill Clinton during Lewinsky-gate). It has nothing to do with their morals/values (the one-child policy has to be one of the most evil laws on the planet, as far as nature is concerned). It has everything to do with the globalists wanting planetary governance and complete control over all lands.
The Bilderbergs, CFR, Trilateral commission IMF/ECB/bankers, et al, are setting the pace for all economies to collapse and consolidate power through all fiat currencies. If anyone is awake there’s a reason why the (corporate/CFR-run) mainstream media is chanting a global economy. We are all intertwined and completely dependent on each other. Nations, for past 100 years, have been manipulated through these entities, using fake regimes/presidents/prime ministers/dictators, to be robbed of absolute sovereignty through the crooked monetary system. China has become the producer state to the American consumer state. In this vicious cycle they are heavily dependent on each other since Americans no longer produce anything and Chinese do not make enough to consume anything. There can be no transfer of power from the west to east (or anywhere else) with this now global(ist) system.
Planetary governance has not happened yet because America is (or we are all still conditioned to believe it’s) still regarded a “superpower”. The US has become the greatest nation on Earth…..thanks to debt from the private corporation known as the Federal Reserve (controlled by globalists/bankers). If a one-world government is to be achieved, no one particular nation can be held as superior to others, hence America’s permanent economic decline (no there is no recovery, this is truly IT for America). The Chinese will not be allowed to become a superpower even if they wanted to (and I’m sure most regular Chinese folk don’t).
I’m overseas Indian and I kind of relate to Shawn’s perspective on how the chinese feel about what the West did ie.colonization and this idea that Westernerners brought civilization to the rest of the world.
India of course was also a very big country and a civilization unto itself. But Britain, which is just a small state, came here with better guns and colonised us. To cut long story short, she plundered India and kept Indians poor …. India GDP only grew about 5% over the centuries she was under Britain. After Independence, she started growing again and one day will be another big power.
So what has this got to do with this topic? Well, I think that when Westerners worry about whether China is going to be a superpower or not, its a symptom of subconscious fear. Firstly that “judgement” time for past misdeeds is coming soon. Secondly, realizing that the West is going to lose the power to go round telling other peoples what to do and pass judgement on their cultures, way of life, tradtions etc One day India will be a super power too, just like China, and then the US has to accept that as well.
I live in China and find this whole China future superpower thing quite laughable……..It’s not going to happen……
becareful, what behind all those irrationalities, illogical, chaotic phenomenons, is a civilazation from another polarity right against western one and their hegemony. the question is are they conscious or not yet are you ready for the coming great conflict between two polarities.
if we put it into the yin yang theory, may we can predict future a little bit clearer, conflict within integration and vice versa.
The true reason of the crisis confronting western world, is not decline but over incline to the materialism, it begetting overwhelming greed, banishing social righteousness, degenerating and blinding mind. and when it reaching and spreading the culmination we receive its representation as a
crisis.
From the same root, the threatening challenges to western hegemony caused by rising China and others, are actually reflections of those structural flaws amplified from within.
The EU will be the nest super power of the 21st century. It has the leading sector and it is that which drives the world economy it will wield both economic, political and military power unrivalled in the rest of thwe world. Quite Sure although I haven’t found and article from any scientific journal which clearly pusges and promotes this conclusion. Its amazing how not even one article from any scientific journal was able to pursue this conclusion. The EU is accosted to other possible spuerpowers.
I hope the MLP won’t be messing around with the Internet.
they cant even help their country, how they are going to take over the world?